Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
788 AXPZ20 KNHC 272050 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Aug 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 11.1N 111.9W at 27/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft (4.5 m). Numerous moderate to strong convection covers and expansive area, within 900 nm in the SE semicircle and 240 nm in the NW semicircle. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 11.3N 133.8W at 27/2100 UTC, moving east-northeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft (3.5 m). Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 330 nm in the SE semicircle and 105 nm in the NW semicircle. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 85W north of 06N to across portions of western Costa Rica and central Nicaragua, moving quickly westward at around 25 kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is along 95.5W north of 03N to near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea to the Gulf of Papagayo near 10N85W to 08N93W to near newly upgraded Tropical Storm Karina at 10.5N111.5W to 14N131W to Tropical Storm Lowell near 11.5N134W to beyond 09N140W. Other than the convection mentioned above in the Special Features section, scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection covers the waters roughly from 02N to 15N between 78W and 101W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Karina. A recent ASCAT scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters with moderate seas, except slight in the Gulf of California. Very active showers and thunderstorms are present over the offshore waters of southern and southwestern Mexico as described with Karina above, with locally higher winds and seas possible there. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will move to 12.2N 113.3W Fri morning, 13.5N 114.8W Fri afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.9N 116.4W Sat morning, 16.2N 118.0W Sat afternoon, 17.4N 119.6W Sun morning, and 18.1N 121.4W Sun afternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.6N 124.8W Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun with locally rough seas there at times, then pulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. A surge of fresh to locally strong southeasterly winds is possible associated with convective complexes may move up the central and northern Gulf of California both Fri and Sat nights. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, possibly brining increasing winds and seas along a similar path to Karina. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo downwind to near 10N90W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, with 5 to 7 ft seas there. Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, with moderate seas, except slight near the coasts of Colombia and eastern Panama. Very active showers and thunderstorms are present over the outer offshore waters areas of the offshore waters from Colombia northward as described in the monsoon trough section above with locally higher winds and seas possible there. For the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming weekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about recently upgraded Tropical Storm Karina, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Lowell. The remnant 1007 mb low of Post-Tropical Iselle is near 23.5N127W with fresh to strong winds around rough seas from 20N to 30N between 124W and 133W. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from the Special Features systems and Post-Tropical Iselle. Rough seas in mainly SW swell surround Karina covering the waters south of 16N between 104W and 119W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will move to 12.2N 113.3W Fri morning, 13.5N 114.8W Fri afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.9N 116.4W Sat morning, 16.2N 118.0W Sat afternoon, 17.4N 119.6W Sun morning, and 18.1N 121.4W Sun afternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.6N 124.8W Mon afternoon. Tropical Storm Lowell will move to 11.6N 133.3W Fri morning, 12.1N 133.2W Fri afternoon, 12.6N 133.7W Sat morning, 12.9N 134.8W Sat afternoon, 13.0N 136.3W Sun morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 13.2N 138.0W Sun afternoon. Lowell will change little in intensity as it moves to 13.4N 141.6W Mon afternoon. The remnant low of Iselle will gradually open up into a trough by the upcoming weekend while remnant winds and seas persist as it shifts west-northwest to 140W where it will reach by the end of the weekend. Large southwesterly swell will impact the southern waters through tonight before decaying and becoming confined to a large area around developing Karina. Looking ahead, much larger and more expansive southwesterly swell may impact the southern waters by early next week. Also, another area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, possibly brining increasing winds and seas along a similar path to Karina.