Tropical Cyclone Discussion
684 WTPZ42 KNHC 272046 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 27 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance well to the west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula and well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands has developed well-organized convective bands. Recently received ASCAT data showed a closed circulation which, while elongated NE-SW, was producing winds near 35 kt about 50 n mi southeast of the center. Based on this, advisories are initiated on Tropical Storm Lowell. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 065/4 kt. During the next day or two, Lowell is expected to turn westward as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north. A generally westward motion should continue for the rest of the forecast period. The guidance has some spread in the forward speed by 120 h, which seems to be due to possible effects on the steering flow by the larger Tropical Storm Karina to the east. The forecast track is near the center of the guidance envelope and splits the speed difference between the models. Lowell will be over warm sea surface temperatures during the next five days and in an environment of light to moderate easterly shear. This should allow steady strengthening, and the initial intensity forecast is near the center of the intensity guidance. Since the environment is favorable and some of the guidance is stronger than the current forecast, it is possible that Lowell will strengthen more and faster than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 11.3N 133.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 11.6N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 12.1N 133.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 12.6N 133.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 12.9N 134.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 13.0N 136.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 13.2N 138.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 13.4N 141.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 13.8N 144.5W 85 KT 100 MPH