Tropical Cyclone Discussion

403
WTNT44 KNHC 272040
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042026
500 PM AST Thu Aug 27 2026

Dolly has been struggling to develop deep thunderstorm activity 
near the center during the day, though a new convective burst has 
recently gone up in the southern semicircle.  Overall the 
environment appears rather dry, with most of the northern portion 
of the circulation exposed.  Satellite Dvorak estimates suggest 
little change in wind speed, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt 
on this advisory.  
 
The initial motion estimate continues at 275/21 kt.  Dolly 
is forecast to move quickly westward for the next couple of days 
under a strong ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic.  
There aren't many guidance changes to report as the models are 
tightly clustered on a path towards the Leeward Islands.  No 
significant changes were made to the previous NHC forecast, 
remaining on the faster and southward side of the guidance 
envelope.  
 
The environment around Dolly will likely become unfavorable for
strengthening on Friday with increasing southwesterly shear due
to a central Atlantic upper-level trough, fast forward motion and
dry air aloft.  Until then, some modest intensification is
possible, consistent with the model consensus.  Global and regional 
models all show Dolly degenerating into a strong tropical wave on 
Friday or Saturday before it reaches the Leeward Islands, and our 
forecast shows this decay by the weekend.  The timing of the 
transition was moved up slightly from the last advisory, otherwise 
no other changes were made to the forecast.  Post-tropical 
positions are provided at 48-60h given the risk of gusty winds and 
heavy rainfall.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rains from Dolly or its remnants could affect the Leeward 
Islands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the 
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday.  This 
heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of 
higher terrain of the Leeward Islands.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 13.7N  40.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 14.1N  43.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 14.7N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 15.6N  53.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 16.5N  57.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  30/0600Z 17.3N  61.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED