Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
432 AXNT20 KNHC 271012 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Aug 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1005 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): Satellite imagery indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, have become better organized tonight. If the current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a short-lived tropical depression or storm later today. However, environmental conditions are expected to become hostile beginning on Friday, likely ending its chances for development. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on this feature. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough to very rough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off Colombia. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is observed with this wave. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 11N38W. The ITCZ continues from 11N38W to 10N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 04N to 15N and east of 23W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the northern Gulf waters and off western Florida. A weak pressure gradient across the basin supports light to gentle winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf waters through early next week, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. A frontal boundary will meander near the northern Gulf waters during the next few days producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Mariners can expect gusty winds and higher seas associated with these storms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident in the Gulf of Honduras, SE Caribbean and off Panama and Costa Rica. Drier conditions are noted elsewhere. Outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are present in the north-central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are occurring in the Windward Passage and the rest of the Caribbean south of 18N. North of 18N, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off Colombia. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Windward Passage at night. An area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the eastern Atlantic has a high chance of tropical development over the next couples of days. The system will bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the Tropical N Atlantic this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on an area of low pressure, Invest AL96, that has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation. A surface trough located SE of Bermuda is producing a few showers north of 26N and between 58W and 63W. Similar convection is found in the waters off NE Florida. The SW North Atlantic is dominated by a weak high pressure area that supports moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas, west of 60W. A cold front extends from Morocco to 26N22W to 28N34W, followed by a stationary front north of our area. Broad high pressure also prevails across the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, maintaining moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at night. An area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the eastern Atlantic has a high chance of tropical development over the next couple of days. The system will bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the southeast waters this weekend.