Tropical Cyclone Discussion

152
WTPA42 PHFO 270232
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  59
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Wed Aug 26 2026

Lala's convective state has remained fairly steady over the past 6 
hours, with convective bands wrapping around the north and west 
sides of the cyclone, indicating that westerly shear of 10-15 kt 
isn't affecting the cyclone very much at this time. Subjective 
Dvorak classifications from PHFO and JTWC range from 30-35 kt, while 
objective satellite estimates range from 45-56 kt. The initial 
intensity will remain 40 kt for this advisory.

Lala is inching toward the northwest, or 325 degrees at 4 kt. Weak 
high pressure ridging to the northeast of Lala will keep the cyclone 
on a slow north-northwestward track for the next 24 h, but as 
ridging strengthens to the north of Lala, a turn toward the 
west-northwest is expected in 36-48 h. Little change was made to the 
previous NHC track forecast for the first 48 h. The forecast was 
adjusted to the left, or southwest, of the previous forecast at hour 
60-72. The NHC forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP 
Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).

Sea-surface temperatures along Lala's track should remain steady 
over the next 36 h between 23-24C while northwesterly wind shear is 
forecast to increase slightly over the next day or so. 200 mb 
temperatures will increase slightly over the next couple of days, 
leading to an atmosphere that is slightly more stable. Model 
guidance is in good agreement that Lala will gradually weaken, and 
the cyclone's winds should eventually fall below gale force around 
the same time it loses its convection, which should occur in about 
36 hours. This is also about the same time that Lala is forecast to 
cross the International Date Line, but there is some chance it could 
still be a tropical cyclone when it crosses into the Eastern 
Hemisphere.  The remnant low should gradually spin down and open up 
into a trough in 3 to 4 days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 36.4N 178.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 37.0N 178.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 37.7N 179.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 38.2N 179.9E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/0000Z 38.7N 178.6E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/1200Z 39.7N 176.6E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0000Z 41.9N 174.6E   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED