Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
047 AXNT20 KNHC 262327 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Aug 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): An 1008 mb area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located a few hundred nautical miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands near 12.5N31W. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system have changed little in organization over the past several hours. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within roughly 150 nm of the center of AL96. Associated winds and seas will spread west of 35W into the High Seas Forecast area overnight into early Thu. Environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for development over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form over the next day or two as the system moves westward to west- northwestward near 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive by this weekend, potentially ending its chances for development. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on this feature. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight and Thu night off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, along with locally very rough seas. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W west of the Cabo Verde Islands, south of 21N, and is associated with Invest AL96. Please refer to the Special Features section above for more details and the potential for tropical cyclone formation. A Tropical N Atlantic tropical wave is along 61W moving across the Lesser Antilles and into the far eastern Caribbean Sea, south of 22N, moving quickly westward at around 25 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with this wave over water, but it may be assisting with some convection over portions of Venezuela. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W, south of 21N over eastern Cuba to portions of Jamaica to near the border of Colombia and Panama, moving quickly westward around 20 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with this wave over water. A tropical wave has departed the NW Caribbean Sea, now over the central Yucatan Peninsula to the far eastern Pacific Ocean, and is helping to enhance convection over portions of the peninsula to near the coast of the NW Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southwestward from 18N17W to 1008 mb low pressure, Invest AL96, near 12.5N31W to 10.5N45W. The ITCZ extends from 10.5N45W to 13N60W. Other than the convection described above with Invest AL96, no significant deep convection is present near the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Isolated to widely scattered showers prevail north of mainly 23N, while generally dry conditions are present in the remainder of the Gulf waters, except in the Bay of Campeche where a weak surface trough is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Weak ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin at the surface supporting mainly gentle winds, to moderate in the Bay of Campeche and the Straits of Florida. Seas are slight across the basin. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will persist across the Gulf waters through the forecast period, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Gulf of Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama nearshore waters. Dry conditions prevail elsewhere over water, while diurnal thunderstorm activity is over portions of Cuba and Hispaniola. Outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 68W and 80W with 6 to 9 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail across the remainder of the waters from 11N to 18N, with gentle to locally moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are slight in the NW Caribbean, and moderate across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight and Thu night off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, along with locally very rough seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Windward Passage at night. An area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the eastern Atlantic has a medium chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. The system may bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the Tropical N Atlantic this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on an area of low pressure, Invest AL96, that has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation. Divergence aloft supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from roughly 27N to 31N between 64W and 77W, and is also enhancing diurnal activity over portions of the western Bahamas and Florida Peninsula. A weak surface trough runs from north of the waters through 31N58W to 25N63W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found within 90-120 nm either side of the trough. To the east, a cold front extends from the Iberian Peninsula to just northwest of the Canary Islands to 30N35W with no noticeable convective activity near the boundary. Fresh to strong winds associated with Invest AL96 are found from 10N to 22N between 27W and 36W, with rough to very rough seas from 09N to 19N between 26W and 33W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough to 24N between 26W and 40W, with fresh northerly winds funneling along the coast of Africa from 18N to 26N to the east of 23W. Moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the offshore and open waters. Mainly slight seas are west of 70W, with mainly moderate seas across the remainder of the waters, except also slight withing about 150 nm ahead/south of the cold front mentioned. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge, and associated weak pressure gradient, will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days. This will support mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at night. An area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the eastern Atlantic has a medium chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. The system may bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the southeast waters this weekend.