Tropical Cyclone Discussion
041 WTPA42 PHFO 261437 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 57 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Wed Aug 26 2026 Lala's deep convection has been decreasing in coverage, with continued evidence of dry air intrusion over the southern portion of the circulation. Also, some southwesterly vertical wind shear appears to now be affecting the system. Although Dvorak intensity estimates are slowly decreasing, a Metop-C scatterometer pass from a few hours ago suggests that the intensity is still near 40 kt. The SHIPS guidance shows increasing shear over Lala with relatively dry air, and SSTs should remain near 23 deg C. Therefore, additional slow weakening is likely and Lala is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low in 48 hours. The system is forecast to cross the International Date line around that time as well. Recent center fixes now show a slow north-northwestward motion around 330/4 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of Lala should result in a north-northwesterly to northwesterly track for the next few days. The official track prediction is only a tad to the right and slightly slower than the previous NHC forecast. This is in close agreement with the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance. Post-tropical Lala is forecast to accelerate deeper into the mid-latitudes over the weekend, and it should open up into a trough over the northern Pacific before reaching the western Aleutian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 35.8N 178.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 36.3N 178.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 37.1N 178.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 37.9N 179.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 38.4N 179.9E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z 38.9N 178.7E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 40.0N 177.0E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z 45.5N 175.0E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED