Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
842 AXNT20 KNHC 261018 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Aug 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0955 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing showers and thunderstorms that are displaced to the southwest of its center. Environmental conditions remain somewhat favorable for development over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next day or two as the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend, potentially ending its chances for development. Formation chance through 48 hours and 7 days is high. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on this feature. Caribbean Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures in northern Colombia will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight and Thu night off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, along with locally very rough seas. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with this wave. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is observed with this wave. For information on the tropical wave previously described in the western Caribbean, please read the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 21N16W to 13N43W. The ITCZ continues from 13N43W to 11N55W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N to 18N and east of 19W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A few showers are noted in the Florida Straits, while generally dry conditions are present in the remainder of the Gulf waters. A weak high pressure system over the central Gulf maintains moderate or weaker winds and slight seas across much of the basin. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will persist across the Gulf waters through the forecast period, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may increase across the northern Gulf waters late this week into the weekend as an upper level trough passes to the north. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean and off Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Dry conditions prevail elsewhere. Outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are noted in the north-central and SW Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in northern Colombia will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale- force tonight and Thu night off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, along with locally very rough seas. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Windward Passage at night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the eastern Atlantic, has a high chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. The system may bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the Tropical N Atlantic this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on an area of low pressure, Invest AL96, that has a high chance of development. Divergence aloft supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 75W, affecting the Florida coast and NW Bahamas. Farther east, a weak surface trough along 59W is producing scattered showers between 55W and 60W and north of 24N. The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are noted east of 60W. Meanwhile, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are found west of 60W. However, gusty winds and higher seas are likely near the stronger storms. For the forecast west of 55W, an elongated trough extending from north of the area southward to 27N along 59W will continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through today. The subtropical ridge will dominate the remainder of the SW N Atlantic waters through the next several days, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the eastern Atlantic, has a high chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. The system may bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the southeast waters this weekend.