Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
881 AXNT20 KNHC 260507 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Aug 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): An area of low pressure located along a tropical wave a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce showers and thunderstorms displaced southwest of its center from 08N to 14N between 24W and 29W. Peak winds are near 25 kt with seas to 7 ft in the vicinity of the low. This activity has changed little in organization tonight, but environmental conditions remain somewhat favorable for gradual development over the next couple of days. A tropical depression is likely to form over the next day or two as the system moves westward to west- northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, though environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for development by this weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours is high. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on this feature. South Central Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure north of the basin and low pressure over northern Colombia will support pulsing winds to gale force in the Gulf of Venezuela and off northern Colombia tonight and Wed evening and night, with locally very rough seas. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W south of 21N, moving westward around 15 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with this wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W south of 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is presently occurring with this wave. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W, south of 21N, moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered showers prevailing the wave environment. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 22N17W to 13N45W. The ITCZ continues from 13N45W to 11N53W. Scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough between 34W-40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Northerly mid-level winds across the northern Gulf coast continue to push scattered showers across northern portions of the Gulf, southward to the area N of 28N between 88W and 93W. A 1015 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf near 29N93W, while a 1016 mb high is analyzed near 26N84W. Moderate or weaker winds with seas 1-3 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, weak and broad high pressure ridging will dominate the basin through the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend with mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds may pulse to moderate to fresh with locally moderate seas offshore of the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the S-central Caribbean. Outside of the gale area, the pressure gradient between the 1020 mb Bermuda High near 28N66W and the 1007 mb Colombian Low is forcing an expanding area of fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean, from south of Jamaica and Hispaniola to South America, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-5 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring south of 17N west of 80W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong winds across the Caribbean south of 18N through the next several days, along with rough seas. Winds will pulse to minimal gale force in the Gulf of Venezuela and off northern Colombia tonight and Wed evening and night with locally very rough seas. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will dominate the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas in the NW Caribbean. Winds will pulse to fresh near the Windward Passage. Looking ahead, low pressure, Invest AL96, in the eastern Atlantic has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone and bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the Tropical N Atlantic this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on low pressure, Invest AL96, and the tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday. A 1029 mb Azores High is centered north of our waters a 41N40W. The pressure gradient between the northward-displaced high and lower pressure over the ITCZ and monsoon trough is only forcing moderate trades across the Tropical Atlantic west of 35W, with seas 4-7 ft. A mid Atlantic deep layer trough north of the Greater Antilles along 60W is forcing scattered moderate convection north of 23N between 56W-59W. East of 40W, a stationary front is analyzed along 30N. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. Winds extending from the Canary Islands to north of the Cabo Verdes are only moderate to fresh N of 16N and E of 35W, with seas of 5-8 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the elongated deep layered trough will continue to support showers and thunderstorms over the waters north of 20N between 55W and 61W through at Thu. Moderate high pressure dominates the remainder of the waters with mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas north of 23N through the remainder of the week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail south of 23N, with slightly higher winds pulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most westward across the far southern waters into the weekend. Looking ahead, low pressure, Invest AL96, in the eastern Atlantic has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone and bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the southeast waters by late Sat into Sun.