Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

573
AXPZ20 KNHC 260405
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Aug 26 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Iselle is centered near 21.3N 122.5W at 26/0300
UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are estimated near 26 ft. Convection
from Iselle is sheared to the NE quadrant and extends from 22N to
27N between 117W and 123W. Iselle is moving toward the west-
northwest near 9 kt, and this general motion is expected for the
next couple of days, with a turn towards the west possible late 
on Wednesday. Weakening is forecast, and Iselle could become a 
post-tropical cyclone on Thursday. Swells generated by Iselle 
are affecting the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula, 
and will continue for a couple more days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
A broad area of low pressure of 1007 mb (Invest EP93), formerly 
associated with a tropical wave, is located well to the south of
southwestern Mexico near 09N106W and is producing a large area 
of showers and thunderstorms. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is ongoing from 03N to 15N between 91W and 115W. This 
system is gradually becoming better organized, and environmental 
conditions appear favorable for continued development. A tropical
depression is expected to form in the next two or three days 
while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, well
offshore of Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone
development within the next 2 days and a high chance within 7 
days.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details on these two systems.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 110W, from 06N to 20N, moving westward 
at 15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 05N to 15.5N between 99W and 112W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 08.5N97W to 08.5N102W
to 13N112W, then resumes SW of Julio from 14N121W to low pres 
near 10N140W 1008 mb. Aside from the convection related to the 
tropical waves, T.S. Julio and T.S. Iselle described above, 
scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted 
from 03.5N to 08.5N E of 91W and from 06N to 13N between 90W and
99W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 120W and 128W, and 
from 03.5N to 12N between 128W and 143W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for more information
about T.S. Iselle and Invest EP93. 
Tropical Storm Iselle is near 21.3N 122.5W at 8 PM PDT, and is
moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 996 mb.
The proximity of Iselle continues to disrupt the ridge to its 
north, and into the Baja offshore waters. This is maintaining 
light to gentle winds across the Baja California waters and the 
SW Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in S-SW swell 
from Iselle across the outer Baja Sur offshotre waters, and
slight to moderate elsewhere, except in the Gulf of California
where light winds maintain slight seas. Otherwise, fresh to 
strong N to NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
and downwind to about 14N with 6 to 8 ft seas.
For the forecast, Iselle will move to 21.6N 123.7W Wed morning, 
22.3N 125.5W Wed evening, weaken to a remnant low near 22.9N 
127.4W Thu morning, 23.4N 129.4W Thu evening, 23.8N 131.4W Fri 
morning, and dissipate Fri evening. Large S-SW swell from Iselle
will continue to move through the Baja waters through early Wed 
before quickly subsiding. Elsewhere, fresh northerly gap winds 
will continue to pulse to strong speeds across Tehuantepec region
during the overnight and early morning hours through the 
upcoming weekend, with seas occasionally building to 8 ft. 
Looking ahead, Invest EP93 has the potential to develop into a 
tropical depression in the next two or three days while it moves
generally WNW at 10 to 15 kt, well offshore of Mexico. This
system will likely follow a similar trajectory as Iselle, Thu 
through the weekend, and impact the outer offshore waters near 
the Revillagigedo Islands within increasing winds and seas.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds continue across the 
Papagayo region and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 9 
ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas 
are S of 04N and between the Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. 
Moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with slight to 
moderate seas in SW swell.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds will 
pulse to strong speeds over the Papagayo region each night 
through Sat night building seas to around 8 ft. Moderate to 
fresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the 
outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through the 
end of the week. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to locally
fresh S winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue 
night and then prevail through the remainder forecast period. 
Otherwise, cross- equatorial SW swell will move into the area 
waters Thu night through Fri. 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section for more information about
T.S. Iselle and Invest EP93. 
High pressure of 1020 mb located near 35N129W extends a broad 
ridge south and southeastward to approximately 118W, and drapes 
across Iselle. The pressure gradient between these features and 
low pressure associated with the monsoon trough is supporting 
moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 25N and W of 
125W. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are south of the monsoon W
of 130W while moderate to fresh E winds accompany the Invest
EP93. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas moderate.
For the forecast, a weak and small area of low pressure located 
well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing 
some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or early 
this weekend while the system drifts northeastward, then turns to
the west-northwest. Formation chance through 48 hours is medium
and high through 7 days. 
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form this weekend 
well south of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions should 
support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical 
depression could form by early next week while it moves westward 
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Formation chance through 
48 hours is low and medium through 7 days.