Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

467
AXNT20 KNHC 251546
TWDAT 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1430 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): An area of low pressure
of 1009 mb is at 12N23W a few hundred miles south-southeast of 
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection 
is occurring from 09N-14N between 21W-26W. Peak winds are near 25 
kt and seas to 7 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development, and this system is likely to become a 
tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves 
westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could become less 
conducive for development by the weekend. Formation chance through
48 hours is high.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: 
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on
this feature.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W from 06N-21N,
moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is occurring from 09N-14N between 21W-26W. This 
system is Invest AL96, which is discussed in detail above.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 50W south of 
17N moving westward around 15 kt. No significant deep convection
is occurring in association with this wave.
An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W south of 20N.
It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is presently 
occurring with this wave.
A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W south of 20N 
to Panama moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is occurring south of 16N west of 80W.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
19N16W to the 1009 mb low at 12N23W, then westward to 11N41W. The
ITCZ begins at 11N41W to 10N49W, where it breaks for an tropical
wave, then begins again at 10N51W to coastal Guyana at 08N59W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring 
from 09N-14N between 21W-26W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 08N-12N between 29W-38W and from 08N-11N west of
55W.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak 1017 mb high is centered over the central Gulf near 24N87W
contributing toward moderate or weaker winds with seas 1-4 ft this
morning. A 1015 mb at 30N86W along a trough extending from 30N86W
to 28N87W is accompanied by scattered moderate convection north 
of 28N east of 90W.
For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over 
the central Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge 
remaining dominate over the basin thereafter. This will maintain 
gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas into the weekend.
A surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west
of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the 
period. 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north of the
area and the 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong
trades over the central Caribbean with seas 6-9 ft. Elsewhere
winds are moderate or weaker with seas 2-5 ft. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 16N west of 
80W.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic high
pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America
will continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant
rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through the rest of
the week and into the weekend. Winds may be near gale-force in the
Gulf of Venezuela at night starting tonight, and northwest of
Colombia at night starting Wed night. Elsewhere, mainly moderate 
to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light 
to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. Winds
will pulse at times through the week following passages several 
tropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin. Long 
period northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure 
system, Invest AL96, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to 
impacts to the far eastern portion of the tropical N Atlantic 
zone starting Sat. 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
low pressure, Invest AL96, and a tropical wave that emerged off 
the coast of Africa yesterday.
A 1030 mb Bermuda-Azores High is centered north of our waters a
42N41W. The pressure gradient between the northward-displaced high
and lower pressure over the ITCZ and monsoon trough is only
forcing gentle to moderate trades with seas 3-7 ft. An upper-level
trough north of the Greater Antilles is forcing scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection north of 22N between 54W-61W. 
For the forecast west of 55W, an elongated trough from north of 
the area to 29N63W will support showers and thunderstorms over the
waters north of 22N and east of 61W through at least tonight. 
High pressure dominates the remainder of the waters with mainly 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas north of 23N 
through the remainder of the week. Moderate to at times fresh 
trades, will prevail south of 23N, with slightly higher winds 
pulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most 
westward across the far southern waters into the weekend. Long 
period northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure 
system, Invest AL96, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to 
impact the far SE portion of the area starting Sat.