Tropical Cyclone Discussion

234
WTPZ45 KNHC 251446
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102026
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Satellite images show that the center of Julio is becoming exposed 
on the northern side of an area of strong convection.  Most of the 
intensity estimates are higher than before, so the initial wind 
speed is nudged upward to 45 kt, which is also consistent with a 
recent OSCAT scatterometer pass.  Julio shouldn't last long since 
shear is greatly increasing as the cyclone gets closer to the 
much-larger Tropical Storm Iselle.  It is forecast by all of the 
models to break apart later today as Julio becomes a small trough a 
low pressure rotating around Iselle's eastward side.  Little change 
in strength is forecast before Julio dissipates tonight, and it 
wouldn't be surprising if scatterometer data showed Julio 
dissipated by the afternoon.  The 12-h forecast below is mostly 
given as a placeholder to show the wind field as separate from 
Iselle until they combine tonight.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 18.0N 118.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 20.8N 119.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED