Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
876 AXNT20 KNHC 251216 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026 Updated for Special Features Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): An area of low pressure centered a few hundred nautical miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands along a tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave extends along 20W/21W and S of 20N, with a 1010 mb low centered along the wave axis near 11N21W. Disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 07N to 12N between 17W and 25W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could become less conducive for development by the weekend. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on this feature. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W south of 20N moving westward around 15 kt. Convection as described below under Monsoon Trough/ITCZ. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W south of 21N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is presently occurring with this wave. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W south of 21N to northern Colombia moving westward around 10 kt. No convection is presently noted with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 11N24W and westward to 12.5N35W to 11N40W and to 09N48W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near 07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 43W-47W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 47W-50W, and within 30 nm of the trough between 38W-43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A relatively weak 1017 mb high pressure is centered over the central Gulf near 25N89W, and is generally producing light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin, except moderate NE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Slight seas of 3 ft or less prevail over the basin per buoy observations and recent satellite altimeter satellite data passes. For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over the central Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge remaining dominate over the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas into the weekend. A surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America continues to allow for moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean from the coast of Hispaniola to the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and northern Colombia, with a narrow zone of strong winds along the coasts near the Gulf of Venezuela and far NE Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft with these trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 11N to 18N, with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas elsewhere. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is confined to south of 15N west of 80W, including some of the inland sections of Nicaragua. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 18N west of 77W. For the forecast, the current synoptic pattern across the region will continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. Winds will pulse at times through the week following passages several tropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin. Long period northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure system, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to impact the far eastern portion of the tropical N Atlantic zone starting Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on low pressure, Invest AL96, and a tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday. Low pressure of 1015 mb, Invest AL95, is north of the area near 35N60W. Its associated trough extends from the low to 31N61W and to near 24N64W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection and fresh to strong south winds persist to the E of the trough N of 24N between 55W and 58W. In the eastern Atlantic, another weak surface trough is analyzed from near 29N32W to 25N34W. No convection is active with this trough. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging prevails. A 1019 mb high center is over the western Atlantic at 29N69W. To the south of this feature, fresh east to southeast winds are over the waters from the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands to near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas remain elsewhere north of 20N and west of 61W. Moderate to fresh trades dominate from north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between Africa and 56W, with 5 to 8 ft seas as noted in overnight satellite altimeter data passes. Winds are mainly moderate and seas moderate across any remainder waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned fresh to strong south winds and the convective activity N of 24N between 55W and 58W will slowly diminish through early this evening as Invest AL95 moves farther away from the forecast waters. Elsewhere, moderate to at times fresh trades, will prevail S of about 23N, with slightly higher winds pulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most westward across the far southern waters into the weekend. Long period northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure system, Invest AL96, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to impact the far SE portion of the area starting Sat.