Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
337 AXNT20 KNHC 250521 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure is analyzed over the far eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde islands. THe wave extends along 19W and S of 20N, with 1010 mb low centered near 11N19W. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are noted from 08N to 15N between 18W-22W. This system could become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could become less conducive for development by the weekend. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on this feature. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W, south of 19N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers prevail along the wave axis and S of 15N. An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 61W south of 21N, moving westward around 10 kt. No convection is noted with this wave at this time. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W south of 21N to northwest Venezuela, moving westward around 10 kt. No convection is noted with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 11N48W. The ITCZ extends from 11N48W to 06N51W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the boundaries. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1016 mb high pressure is centered over the central Gulf near 24N86W, and is generally producing light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin, except moderate NE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Slight seas of 3 ft or less prevail over the basin per buoy observations. For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over the central Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge remaining dominate over the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas into the weekend. A surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America continues to allow for moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean from the coast of Hispaniola to the coasts of NW Venezuela and northern Colombia, with a narrow zone of strong winds along the coasts near the Gulf of Venezuela and far NE Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft with these trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 11N to 18N, with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas elsewhere. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 09N to 15N W of 80W, including over portions of northern Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. For the forecast, the current pattern across the region will continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. Winds will pulse at times through the week following passages several tropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on low pressure, Invest AL96, and tropical wave that emerged off Africa. A weak surface trough is analyzed across the western Atlantic extending SW through 30N75W to 27N79W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of this trough. Moderate SW winds are occurring north of the trough. A 1019 mb high pressure is east of this feature near 29N70W. South of the high, fresh E-SE winds are noted from the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands to near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of 20N and west of 60W. Slight to moderate seas prevail north of 20N and west of 61W. Invest AL95 is currently N of the area. Its associated trough prevails over the waters N of 26N between 60W and 62W. Scattered moderate convection prevails E of the trough mainly N of 24N between 55W-59W. Another weak surface trough is analyzed in the East Atlantic from 29N32W to 25N34W. No convection related to this trough. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging prevails. Moderate to fresh trades dominate from north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between Africa and 56W, with 5 to 8 ft seas. Winds are mainly moderate and seas moderate across any remainder waters. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms in the wake of Invest AL95 prevail north of 24N between 54W and 60W. Fresh to strong south winds are north of 28N between 55W and 59W. These conditions will diminish through Tue as the low, possibly a tropical cyclone, moves farther away from the forecast waters. Elsewhere, moderate to at times fresh trades, will prevail S of about 23N, with slightly higher winds pulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most westward across the far southern waters into the weekend.