Tropical Cyclone Discussion
499 WTPA42 PHFO 250238 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 51 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Mon Aug 24 2026 ASCAT data that arrived after the issuance of the previous advisory indicated that Lala has weakened slightly. The ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds between 40-45 kt, with slightly smaller 34 kt wind radii than previously estimated. Accounting for some likely undersampling, the initial intensity has been set to 50 kt for this advisory. The ASCAT data also indicted Lala is centered slightly northeast of previous estimates. The official track forecast for Lala has been shifted slightly northward, mainly due to the initial position adjustment. Otherwise, the reasoning behind the forecast is unchanged. Lala is expected to move slowly northwestward for the next several days, between a weak ridge to its northeast and a weak trough to its southwest. The NHC forecast track remains similar to the GDMI and HCCA forecasts through 72 h, and then weighs some of the global models a little more heavily after that for the post-tropical part of the forecast. No change of note was made to the NHC intensity or size forecast for Lala. The tropical storm is moving over cool SSTs and through a moderately dry environment (RH less than 50 percent based on GFS and ECMWF SHIPS diagnostics). In about 2 days, an increase in south or southwesterly wind shear should contribute to Lala losing its deep convection and becoming a remnant low about a day after that, near the dateline. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS, ECMWF and various hurricane models also agrees with that timing. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 34.3N 175.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 34.7N 176.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 35.1N 177.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 35.6N 178.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 36.2N 178.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 37.1N 179.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 38.1N 180.0E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0000Z 40.0N 178.5E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z 43.0N 176.5E 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW