Tropical Cyclone Discussion
750 WTPA42 PHFO 242041 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 50 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 24 2026 Lala has remained remarkably steady in organization over the past couple of days. The storm continues to maintain moderate deep convection in banding features with a ragged eye-like feature near the center. The system is over sea surface temperatures of around 25 deg C and there is apparently sufficient instability to allow the cyclone to maintain its convection for the time being. Lala's current intensity is held at 55 kt in agreement with a Dvorak intensity estimate from PHFO Honolulu. This is also a blend of objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. The current motion estimate is around 320/4 kt, about the same as earlier this morning. Lala is embedded in a broad cyclonic flow with fairly weak steering currents overall. The system is still fairly well-removed from the faster deep-layer southwesterly flow at higher latitudes. Therefore a continued slow motion is expected for the next few days, although a mid level ridge could build a bit to the northeast of the system and possibly impart a slightly faster forward speed. The official forecast is a blend of the corrected dynamical model consensus and the Google DeepMind forecast. This is quite similar to the previous NHC track. Lala is expected to pass over gradually cooling ocean waters during the next several days. This, along with a relatively dry low- to mid-level air mass, should result in slow weakening through the forecast period. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models show the system losing most of its associated deep convection in around 72 hours so the official forecast indicates that Lala should transition into a post tropical cyclone near the time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 33.7N 175.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 34.2N 176.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 34.8N 177.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 35.2N 177.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 35.8N 178.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 36.6N 179.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 37.4N 179.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 28/1800Z 39.0N 178.5E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1800Z 42.0N 176.0E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW