Tropical Cyclone Discussion

644
WTPZ45 KNHC 242035
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102026
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the 
south-southwest of Tropical Storm Iselle (Invest EP91) has had a 
well-defined surface circulation since last night, confirmed by 
scatterometer passes.  Visible satellite imagery shows that the 
circulation continues to be well-defined.  Over the past 12 hours, 
thunderstorm activity has increased significantly over the center, 
and at 18Z, TAFB provided a classification of T2.0/30 kt.  
Furthermore, a recent GPMI overpass highlights the curved banding 
structure of the convection.  Thus, Tropical Depression Ten-E has 
formed.

Track guidance is in good agreement on a north-northeastward motion 
over the next 12 hours, with a bend toward the north and some 
acceleration in 12-24 h as the circulation of Tropical Storm Iselle 
draws in Tropical Depression Ten-E.  The NHC track forecast is near 
the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA), the Google DeepMind Ensemble 
Mean (GDMI) and the Simple Consensus (TVCN).  The forecast is also 
near the average of the latest GFS and ECMWF models.

Some slight strengthening is possible since the depression is over 
warm water and within a moist environment.  Some of the global 
model fields show the cyclone attaining tropical-storm-force winds 
over the next 12 h, and the NHC forecast follows suit.  Every model 
shows this system dissipating by hour 36, and the official forecast 
will also show dissipation by that time.  Iselle should open up 
into a trough by hour 36 as northerly vertical wind shear increases 
as it moves closer to Iselle.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 13.5N 120.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 14.9N 120.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 18.1N 119.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED