Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
600 AXNT20 KNHC 241101 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Aug 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Subtropical Atlantic (Invest-AL95): Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection located a few hundred nautical miles southeast of Bermuda are roughly from 26N to 31N between 55W and 60W. This convection is associated with an area of low pressure analyzed as a weak 1016 mb low near 29N62W. A trough extends from the low to north of 31N62W and southwest from the low to near 28N64W. Further development of the low is possible, and this system could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm during the next couple of days while it moves northward and north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and through the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 40W south of 19N. It is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 14N between 33W and 42W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W south of 23N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is to the northeast of the northern part of the wave from 21N to 25N between 52W and 56W A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W south of 21N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are from 16N to 18N between 69W and 71W. Isolated showers are elsewhere near the wave. The earlier tropical wave that was along 90W has moved well west of the Caribbean into the eastern Pacific. Please see the TWDEP for details on this wave. Looking ahead, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa later today, and an area of low pressure could form in association with the wave early this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portions of the week while the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance for tropical formation in 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 15N16W and continues west-soutwhestward to 12N28W to 09N36W to 06N43w and to 07N50W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 42W and 47W. Numerous moderate isolated strong ahead of the next tropical wave is present from 07N to 16N between 15W and 22W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Weak surface ridging that is anchored by a 1017 mb high center located near 26N86W is generally allowing for anticyclonic light to gentle winds across the basin. Seas of slight state remain over the basin per overnight buoy observations and satellite altimeter data passes. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are confined to southwest of a line from near Veracruz to 19N91.5W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the NE Gulf north of 28N between 87W and 88W, and over some sections of the central Gulf. For the forecast, the weak high pressure will remain centered over central Gulf through through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge building westward into the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas through the week. A surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America continues to allow for fresh to strong trades primarily over the south- central Caribbean. Seas up to 6 ft are with these trades as indicated by overnight satellite altimeter data. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere, except over the northwestern part of the Caribbean north of 20N, where light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are present. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 10N to 14N west of 81.5W to inland the coast of Nicaragua near 85W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen south of 14N between 75W and 78W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the Windward Passage and waters, reaching to near the eastern tip of Cuba. For the forecast, the previously mentioned pressure gradient will continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the northwest part of the basin. Winds will pulse at times through the week following passages of a series of relatively weak tropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on low pressure, Invest AL95, with the potential for tropical cyclone formation. A trough extends from near 31N78W southwestward to near Palm Beach, Florida. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are along the trough north of about 28N while isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the trough south of 28N. A 1019 mb high center located near 30N68W basically controls the general wind flow pattern over the western half of the basin. To the east, a large area of scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N to 26N between 52W and 57W, and also from 25N to 31N between 48W and 51W. Moderate to fresh trades are found from 10N to 20N north of the monsoon trough between the Cabo Verde Islands and 42W, and in a belt from there to near the low pressure area, Invest-AL95. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. Seas are of slight state north of about 20N and west of 60W, and of moderate state over the remainder of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, regarding the aforementioned low, (Invest- AL95), further development of the low is possible, and this system could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm during the next couple of days while it moves northward and north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. The fresh to strong southerly winds will slowly diminish through early early Tue. Elsewhere, high pressure will maintain mainly gentle winds N of 23N through the period, with moderate to fresh trades to the south, with slightly higher winds pulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most westward across the far southern waters this week.