Tropical Cyclone Discussion

088
WTPA43 PHFO 240233
TCDCP3
 
Tropical Depression Moke Discussion Number  15
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026

Convection associated with Moke has decreased significantly during
the past several hours. The cyclone is now comprised of an exposed
swirl of low- to mid-level clouds, with the remaining convection
now located just south of the Island of Hawaii well to the
northeast of the center. Just-received OSCAT data shows maximum
winds of 25 to maybe 30 kt, and based on this Moke is being
downgraded to a tropical depression.
 
A combination of southwesterly shear and dry air entrainment
should continue to inhibit Moke's ability to develop convection.
The dynamical models forecast the cyclone to keep weakening, with
the system likely to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h at the
latest and to a trough by 72 h.  The intensity forecast follows
this, and it is possible that Moke will dissipate faster than
currently forecast if significant convection does not re-develop.
 
The initial motion is 275/12 kt.  A strong low- to mid-level
ridge should steer the cyclone generally westward for the remainder
of its life, keeping Moke well south of the main Hawaiian Islands.
The guidance again nudged southward, and the new forecast track is a
little south of the previous track.  Despite this nudge and the
weakening of the cyclone, Moke is still expected to pass close
enough to the Hawaiian Islands to produce a period of gusty winds
and heavy rainfall across portions of the islands during the next
day or two.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rain bands associated with Tropical Depression Moke will continue 
over the Big Island while spreading westward across the remainder of 
the Hawaiian Islands through Monday. This rainfall may produce 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and 
southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas 
that were affected recently by Lala.
 
2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to
pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,
particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 15.3N 157.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 15.4N 159.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 15.8N 161.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 16.3N 164.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 16.8N 167.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  26/1200Z 17.3N 169.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED