Tropical Cyclone Discussion
357 WTPA43 PHFO 232032 TCDCP3 Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 14 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 A large area of thunderstorm activity continues in the northern semicircle of Moke, though the southern side of the system remains mostly exposed. Visible satellite imagery indicates the center is on the southwestern edge of the deep convection, reflective of the southerly shear. While Dvorak intensity estimates have recently increased, recent scatterometer data is actually lower than earlier, showing only a small area of winds above 30 kt. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt assuming some undersampling knowing the bias of that instrument. Moke should move through a tough environment during the next several days, with lots of mid-level dry air and moderate shear in its path. These conditions should suppress the influences of the warm sea-surface temperatures, and Moke will likely only produce temporary bursts of deep convection early this week. Shear is still forecast to increase in a day or two, and the storm is expected to weaken into a tropical depression and/or remnant low around that time. The model trend of an earlier dissipation continues, so the time of tropical depression and remnant low status has been moved up 12-24 h, with a faster weakening than the last advisory. Moke is moving westward at about 13 kt. A strong low- to mid-level ridge should steer the storm westward to west-northwestward for the next several days, keeping Moke well south of the main Hawaiian Islands. Similar to the last forecast, the model guidance has shifted a bit to the south, and the NHC track is moved in that direction. Moke is still expected to pass close enough to the Hawaiian Islands to produce a period of gusty winds and heavy rainfall across portions of the islands during the next day or two. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke is gradually increasing over the Big Island of Hawaii today. Rain will then spread westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.2N 156.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 15.4N 158.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 15.7N 160.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 16.2N 163.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 16.8N 166.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 26/0600Z 17.4N 168.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED