Tropical Cyclone Discussion
305 WTPA42 PHFO 231434 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 45 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 The presentation of Tropical Storm Lala has not changed much on infrared satellite imagery over the past six hours, with deep convection limited to the south and eastern semicircles. Subjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC and HFO are both T3.5/55 kt, and objective intensity estimates are closer to 50 kt. For this advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt, which could be generous but is consistent with a steady decay of the cyclone over cooler waters. Lala appears to have slightly decelerated on a west-northwestward heading (300/4 kt), as it is steered by a weak mid-level ridge positioned just south and east of the central Aleutian Islands. The tropical storm should continue on a generally west-northwestward to northwestward heading through the remainder of the forecast period as the ridge slides eastward. Lala's forward motion is not expected to change much, and remain somewhat slow. The track guidance this cycle remains in decent agreement on this scenario, though there continues to be some cross-track spread, with the GFS presenting a more eastward solution and the Google Deep Mind showing a more westward solution. The updated track forecast is again slightly slower than the previous one, and is again nudged westward toward the latest corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA). The waters near the tropical storm are around 26C, with light shear and dry mid-level air. The shear and mid-level moisture are not likely to change much through the forecast period, so Lala should only weaken gradually as it moves over progressively cooler waters. Cooler upper tropospheric temperatures, which increase tropospheric instability, could counter some of the effect, at least initially, of the sea surface temperatures. By 120 h, Lala is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low, in agreement with the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery and the large-scale environmental diagnostics from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) guidance. The new intensity forecast is consistent with the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 32.1N 173.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 32.5N 174.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 33.1N 174.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 33.8N 175.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 34.3N 176.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 34.9N 177.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 35.6N 177.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 37.2N 179.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 39.1N 178.9E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW