Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
718 AXPZ20 KNHC 231010 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... As is normal during EL Nino year, the eastern Pacific remains active. The national Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two tropical disturbances with the potential for tropical cyclone development offshore of southwestern Mexico. These systems are Invest areas EP91 and EP92. Southwest of Mexico (EP92): Showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions are favorable for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form today as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring fresh to strong winds and rough seas to the Jalisco outer offshores today, and near gale-force to gale-force winds and rough seas to the Baja California Sur outer offshore waters tonight into Tue. This system has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and also through 7 days. Central East Pacific (EP91): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are persisting with a broad area of low pressure located well to the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions could support the development of a short-lived tropical depression during the next day or two before it interacts or merges with the disturbance to its east (EP92). This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and also through 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details on these systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 03N to 17N with axis near 99W, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 16N between 96W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N100W to 14N115W to 06N131W. The ITCZ begins near 06N131W and continues beyond 05N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave and Invest areas described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 00N to 14N E of 93W, and from 00N to 08N W of 128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continue to dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California Norte while lower pressure associated with Invest EP92 dominates the Baja California Sur offshores. Gentle to moderate NW winds and moderate seas are ongoing across the Baja California Norte offshores while fresh to strong winds and rough seas are already affecting the outer Jalisco and Baja California Sur offshore waters. A surface trough along the Peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds along the Gulf of California along with slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, fresh to strong N gap winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region and downwind to about 14N. Seas are up to 8 ft with these winds. For the forecast, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to pulse to strong speeds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight into the early morning hours through the next several days, with seas occasionally building to 8 ft. A ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California Norte today, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. Southerly wind flow will become fresh to locally strong over the north and central parts of the Gulf of California today. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds and rough seas associated with Invest EP92 will continue to affect the Jalisco and Baja California Sur outer offshore waters through at least Tue with gale-force winds likely affecting the Revillagigedo Islands tonight into Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 91W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas in S swell. For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern Gulf of America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, leading to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong speeds over the Papagayo region each evening and night. Moderate to fresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through the middle of next week. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds will persist through Wed night. Mainly moderate seas will prevail away from the Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on systems that have the potential for tropical cyclone formation. High pressure of 1025 mb located near 40N135W extends a ridge southeastward into the northern forecast waters to offshore of Baja California Norte, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 26N W of 130W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in mixed swell prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, another area of low pressure is expected to develop well south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula during the middle portion of next week. Some slow development is expected thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the end of next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, EP92, described above, is forecast to bring at least gale-force winds and rough seas to the immediate waters adjacent to the Baja California Sur and Jalisco offshores. Little change is expected in the marine conditions elsewhere.