Tropical Cyclone Discussion
468 WTPA43 PHFO 230843 TCDCP3 Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 12 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 Moke's overall organization has changed little during the past several hours. Persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air have eroded much of the convection that was present earlier, leaving the low-level circulation exposed. Convective coverage remains limited, aside from occasional bursts of deep convection near and north of the center. Recent satellite-derived wind data showed peak winds of around 40 kt north of the circulation, while recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 46 kt in the northeastern quadrant. These data, along with the overall satellite presentation, support maintaining the initial intensity at 40 kt for this advisory. Moke continues to move west-northwestward, with an initial motion of 280/10 kt. A general west-northwestward motion is expected to continue during the next several days as a strong low- to mid-level ridge remains to the north of the cyclone. This track should bring the center of Moke a couple of hundred miles south of the Big Island on Sunday and then well south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands thereafter. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous forecast. Despite the center of Moke remaining south of the Hawaiian Islands, the cyclone is expected to pass close enough to produce a period of gusty winds and heavy rainfall across portions of the islands during the next couple of days. Moke has likely peaked in intensity over the past 24 h. Although vertical wind shear is forecast to decrease somewhat during the next day, an increasingly dry and stable surrounding environment should limit any chances for additional strengthening and likely cause Moke to begin a steady weakening trend on Sunday. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear and continued entrainment of dry air should cause Moke to weaken further through early next week. By around 96 h, both the GFS and ECMWF depict Moke becoming largely devoid of deep convection, and the cyclone could degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday, then dissipate by day 5. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii early Sunday morning. Rain will then spread westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 15.2N 153.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 15.4N 155.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 15.8N 158.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 16.3N 160.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 17.0N 163.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 17.6N 165.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 18.0N 168.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 19.1N 173.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED