Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
509 AXPZ20 KNHC 222110 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... As is normal during EL Nino year, the eastern Pacific remains active. The national Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two tropical disturbances with the potential for tropical cyclone development offshore of southwestern Mexico. These systems are Invest areas EP91 and EP92. Southwest of Mexico (EP92): Showers and thunderstorms are quickly becoming better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. However, recent satellite- derived wind data indicates that the system does not yet have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions are quite favorable for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form on Sunday as the system moves west- northwestward at around 10 kt. This system has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and also through 7 days. Central East Pacific (EP91): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are persisting with a broad area of low pressure located well to the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form before it interacts with, or merges with the disturbance to its east (EP92) late this weekend or early next week. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and also through 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details on these systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 97W, N of 03N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 09N to 12N between 93W and 99W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 10N100W to 13N111W to 07N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave and Invest areas described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 09N E of 91W, and from 01N to 07N W of 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas prevail across the northern and central Gulf of California while moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate seas are noted over the southern part of the Gulf. High pressure over east-central Mexico, combined with a surface trough moving across the Bay of Campeche, continues to support fresh to strong N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region and downwind to about 14N based on a recent scatterometer pass. Seas are up to 8 ft with these winds. Fresh to strong E to SE, associated with the Invest area EP92, are noted in the outer offshore waters of SW Mexico, particularly from 15N to 17N between 105W and 112W. For the forecast, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to pulse to strong speeds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight into the early morning hours through the next several days, with seas occasionally building to 8 ft. A ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California the remainder of the weekend supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. Southerly wind flow will become fresh to locally strong over the north and central parts of the Gulf of California tonight and Sun. Winds and seas associated with currently Invest area EP92 are expected to reach the Revillagigedo Islands on Sun. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas in S swell. For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern Gulf of America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, leading to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong speeds over the Papagayo region each evening and night. Moderate to fresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through the middle of next week. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds will persist through Wed night. Mainly moderate seas will prevail away from the Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on systems that have the potential for tropical cyclone formation. High pressure of 1027 mb located near 34N144W extends a ridge southeastward into the northern forecast waters to offshore of Baja California supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 20N W of 120W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and moderate to rough seas are noted S of the monsoon trough between 115W and 125W. These winds are just S of Invest EP91. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in mixed swell prevail elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds are also occurring within 210 nm NE quadrant and 180 nm SE quadrant of Invest EP92. Moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas in mixed NE and S swell. For the forecast, regardless of tropical cyclone development, the features described above are forecast to bring increasing winds and rough seas roughly across the waters S of 20N between 100W and 120W the remainder of the weekend. Little change is expected in the marine conditions elsewhere.