Tropical Cyclone Discussion
363 WTPA42 PHFO 222034 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 42 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 Lala’s convective structure hasn’t changed much over the past 6 h, which consists of tightly curved bands. Only some of the area of these convective bands consists of deep convection with cloud tops colder than -30C, whereas only moderate convection covers the remainder of the convective band area, with cloud top temperatures between 0C and -30C. The latest subjective Dvorak classifications are T4.0/65 kt from JTWC and T3.5/55 kt from PHFO. Since convection has been fairly meager for a while now, and we are 12 hours removed from the earlier 09Z ASCAT pass mentioned in the discussion from the 15Z advisory, the initial intensity it again nudged downward, and is set at 65 kt for this advisory. Lala has slowed down over the past 12 hours, and the initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305 degrees at 6 kt. There is no change to the forecast track philosophy. Two mid- to upper-level ridges, one to the north and one to the west of Lala will cause the cyclone to continue moving slowly northwestward through Monday, before it attempts to squeeze in between those two ridges by midweek. The northwestward motion in 3-5 days will also be aided by an approaching upper-level trough well to the north of the system. Only a small change to the right of the previous NHC track forecast has been made, and the latest forecast is close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) model. Relatively dry air and decreasing sea-surface temperatures along Lala's track will cause continued weakening. The shear will continue to be weak, and Lala will be moving into an area of colder upper-tropospheric temperatures, so those positive factors will be enough so that only gradual weakening is expected over the next several days. No major changes are made to the previous NHC intensity forecast, which lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The system is now forecast to lose its convection and become post-tropical in about 5 days, as suggested by the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imageries. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 31.0N 172.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 31.6N 173.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 32.4N 174.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 33.0N 174.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 33.6N 175.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 34.4N 176.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 35.1N 176.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 37.0N 178.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 38.8N 179.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL