Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
106 AXPZ20 KNHC 221539 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwest of Mexico (EP92): A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are starting to show signs of organization. This system is moving west-northwestward and is likely to become a tropical depression by the end of this weekend or early next week. This system is likely to merge with, or absorb, the disturbance to its west (EP91) by late Sunday. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and a high chance through 7 days. Central East Pacific (EP91): A broad area of low pressure located well to the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form before it merges with the disturbance to its east (EP92) by late Sunday. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and a medium chance through 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details on these systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 95W, N of 03N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 15N between 90W and 100W. A tropical wave is near 110W from 04N to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 18N between 102W and 115W. A 1009 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 12.5N110W. This system is associated with Invest EP92 discussed in the Special Features section above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N95W to 12.5N110W to 08N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves and Invest areas described above, scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 03N to 08N E of 90W, and from 02N to 10N W of 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with moderate seas with the exception of moderate to fresh winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail across the Gulf of California. High pressure over east- central Mexico, combined with a surface trough moving across the Bay of Campeche, supports fresh to strong N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 13.5N. Seas are up to 8 ft with these winds. Fresh to strong E to SE are noted in the outer offshore waters of SW Mexico associated with Invest EP92. For the forecast, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to pulse to strong speeds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight into the early morning hours through Wed night, with seas occasionally building to 8 ft. A ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California this weekend supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. Southerly wind flow will return to the Gulf of California tonight and become fresh to locally strong over the north and central parts of the Gulf on Sun. Winds and seas are expected to continue to build across the outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico into early next week in association with a developing area of low pressure, EP92, moving west-northwestward and just outside of the offshore waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas in S swell. For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern Gulf of America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, leading to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong speeds over the Papagayo region each evening and night. Moderate to fresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through mid next week. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds will persist through Wed night. Mainly moderate seas will prevail away from the Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section and the Tropical Waves section above for information on systems that have the potential for tropical cyclone formation. High pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge southeastward into the regional waters to offshore of Baja California supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 12N to 25N W of 130W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and moderate to rough seas are noted S of the monsoon trough between 115W and 121W. These winds are just S of Invest EP91. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in mixed swell prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, regardless of tropical cyclone development, the features described above are forecast to bring increasing winds and rough seas roughly across the waters S of 20N between 100W and 120W this weekend. Little change is expected in the marine conditions elsewhere.