Tropical Cyclone Discussion
666 WTPA42 PHFO 221435 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 41 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 The areal coverage of deep convection in association with Lala has been gradually decreasing over the past 12 to 18 h. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from JTWC and PHFO are a consensus T4.0/65 kt. Recent objective satellite intensity estimates range from 50-62 kt. A 22/0905 UTC ASCAT-C overpass had wind vectors as high as 64 kt. Given the degraded appearance on satellite imagery, but also taking into account the well-known low-bias in the ASCAT instrument at those wind speeds, the intensity is nudged downward to 70 kt for this advisory. The 34-kt wind radii were expanded in some of the quadrants based on the ASCAT pass. Lala appears to have made a short-term jog to the west-northwest and is also starting to decelerate, but the longer term motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310 degrees at 9 kt. Two mid- to upper-level ridges, one to the north and one to the west of Lala will cause the cyclone to slow down to a forward speed of around 5 kt on Sunday and Monday while continuing northwestward, before it attempts to squeeze in between those two ridges in 3-5 days. The northwestward motion in 3-5 days will also be aided by an approaching upper-level trough well to the north of the system. There continues to be significant cross-track model spread in the 3-5 day period. The NHC forecast is slower and farther left compared to the previous NHC forecast and is close to an average of the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Simple Consensus (TVCN) models. The dry air getting into the core of Lala has been the culprit for the recent weakening. The shear is forecast to remain low through the forecast period. By the time the mid-level troposphere moistens slightly in a couple of days, Lala will have crossed the 26C sea-surface temperature isotherm into cooler waters, and will continue to move into progressively cooler water after that. Since upper-level temperatures will also cool down in a few days along Lala's path, only gradual weakening is forecast, and Lala could still be a tropical cyclone in 4-5 days. Only very small changes have been made to the previous NHC forecast, which lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 30.5N 172.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 31.2N 173.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 31.9N 174.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 32.6N 174.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 33.2N 175.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 34.0N 176.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 34.8N 176.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 36.5N 178.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 38.8N 179.9W 40 KT 45 MPH