Tropical Cyclone Discussion
656 WTPA43 PHFO 221433 TCDCP3 Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 9 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 Moke is gaining some strength this morning with deep convection increasing in intensity and extent. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have departed the storm, but during their last pass through the center they measured a minimum pressure of 994 mb and maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 53 kt. These data support increasing the initial wind speed to 45 kt for this advisory. This intensity estimate is also in agreement with the latest JTWC Dvorak classification and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. The aircraft data and last night's ASCAT pass also showed that the tropical-storm-force wind radii are a little larger on the north side of the system while the radius of maximum wind has contracted. Nonetheless, Moke remains a compact tropical storm. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system again later today. The tropical storm is moving a little faster to the west-northwest, or 290/10 kt. This general motion is expected to persist during the next several days as a low- to mid-level ridge strengthens to the north of the storm. This track should bring the center of Moke roughly a couple of hundred miles to the south of the Big Island late tonight and early Sunday and then well south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands after that. Since Moke is expected to remain compact, and because there is high confidence in the short term track forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings appear to be necessary for Hawaii. However, the storm is expected to be close enough to produce gusty winds in portions of the Hawaiian Islands, especially in areas of high terrain, late tonight through early next week. In addition, most of the associated moisture is expected to be on the north side of the cyclone, so areas of heavy rain are forecast there during the next few days. Moke will likely strengthen a little more today while it remains in generally conducive environmental conditions. However, the combination of dry air entrainment and an increase in vertical wind shear should cause the storm to gradually lose strength beginning Sunday and continuing into next week. The intensity models are in good agreement, and little change was made to the previous NHC forecast. In fact, most of the models show Moke dissipating toward the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late tonight, with rain spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain. 3. Swells generated by the storm may cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through early next week for exposed east and south facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 14.8N 150.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 15.2N 151.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 15.6N 154.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 16.0N 156.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 16.4N 158.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 16.9N 161.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 17.4N 163.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 18.6N 169.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 19.4N 173.1W 30 KT 35 MPH