Tropical Cyclone Discussion
877 WTPA43 PHFO 212037 TCDCP3 Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 6 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 21 2026 Data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the depression has strengthened. Dropsonde data suggest that the minimum pressure is around 1002 mb and the flight-level wind information supports an initial wind speed of about 40 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Moke. Moke is gradually becoming better organized in satellite images, with curved bands showing improved structure north of the center. There has not been any significant change to the track forecast philosophy. A low- to mid-level ridge is expected to strengthen to the north of the storm during the next few days, and that should cause Moke to move a little faster to the west-northwest. This motion should cause the core of system to pass to the south of the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend and early next week. Since Moke is also forecast to be a compact storm, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required based on the current predictions. However, the storm will very likely be close enough to produce some wind, rain, and surf impacts, see the Key Messages below for details. The NHC track forecast is again largely an update of the previous one, and remains on the north side of the guidance envelope. Moke has another day or so to strengthen while it remains in generally favorable environmental conditions. However, most of the models show the storm entraining dry air while it moves into a region of higher shear late this weekend and early next week. Those environmental conditions should cause the storm to gradually weaken beginning in about 36 hours, and it could even dissipate toward the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance. Based on the environmental conditions and model spread, there remains high confidence that Moke will stay below hurricane strength. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Moke will begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, with rain spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain on the Big Island. 3. Swells generated by the storm may cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions this weekend and early next week for portions of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 13.9N 147.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 14.5N 148.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 15.1N 150.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 15.7N 152.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 16.1N 155.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 16.4N 158.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 16.8N 160.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 17.7N 165.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 18.5N 169.6W 30 KT 35 MPH