Tropical Cyclone Discussion
503 WTPA43 PHFO 211459 TCDCP3 Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 5 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Fri Aug 21 2026 Satellite and microwave imagery depicts deeper convective bands associated Two-C north of the center. The latest subjective intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC are T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 kt, which correlates well with the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, supporting around 30 kt intensities as well. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Later today, NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate Two-C. The depression is maintaining a west-northwestward track of 295/9 kt, and that is expected to persist as the cyclone progresses south of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest model guidance showcases a more westward track through the weekend as broad ridging builds in the Central Pacific just north of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest NHC track forecast is largely just an update of the previous one, and a blend of the consensus models and the guidance of the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. The latest model and satellite trends suggest Two-C will likely strengthen over the next 48 h, as environmental conditions remain generally favorable. While the cyclone will experience light, southwesterly shear during the early portion of its life cycle, significantly warmer SSTs and a relatively moist atmosphere will help counter any negative shear effects. However, multi-model intensity consensus and SHIPS intensity guidance portray gradual weakening thereafter as the cyclone should succumb to increasing vertical wind shear and drier relative humidity values. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with the system will begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, with rain spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Although the strongest winds associated with the system are expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain on the Big Island. 3. Swells generated by the system may cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions this weekend and early next week for portions of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 13.4N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 13.9N 147.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 14.7N 149.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 15.4N 151.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 15.9N 153.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 16.2N 156.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 16.6N 159.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 17.7N 164.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 18.5N 168.4W 30 KT 35 MPH