Tropical Cyclone Discussion
135 WTPA43 PHFO 210844 TCDCP3 Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 4 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 20 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that the convective coverage associated with Tropical Depression Two-C has changed little during the past several hours. Much of the deep convection remains positioned north of the low-level circulation. This steady satellite presentation, combined with the generally unchanged intensity estimates from HFO, JTWC, and UW-CIMSS, supports maintaining the initial intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate the cyclone on Friday. The initial motion is estimated to be 290/9 kt, and this general motion is expected to persist into the weekend while the cyclone remains on the southern side of the subtropical ridge. A gradual turn toward the west is forecast later in the weekend as the ridge builds to the north of the system. Track guidance remains in generally good agreement, although some cross-track spread persists as the cyclone approaches and passes south of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend and into early next week. The updated NHC forecast is slightly south of the previous forecast, and lies closer to the consensus and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual strengthening during the next few days as the depression approaches the Hawaiian Islands. The cyclone is forecast to stay over warm waters and within a moist environment with light to moderate vertical wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the upper end of the intensity guidance and shows a gradual weakening trend beginning by early next week due to drier mid-level air and increasing vertical wind shear. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Two-C is expected to strengthen while it moves west-northwestward toward the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with the tropical depression will begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 13.0N 145.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 13.5N 146.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 14.3N 148.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 15.1N 150.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 15.8N 153.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 23/1800Z 16.3N 156.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 16.6N 158.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 17.3N 163.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 18.3N 167.3W 35 KT 40 MPH