Tropical Cyclone Discussion

126
WTPA42 PHFO 210235
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Thu Aug 20 2026
 
Lala's satellite presentation has changed little during the past
several hours, characterized by a persistent band of deep convection
over the western semicircle of the inner core. While intermittent
dry air entrainment has occurred, the cyclone has successfully
fended off these intrusions before they could significantly disrupt
the overall structure.  The current Subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates show a large spread, ranging from 65
to 92 kt. Given the relatively steady state of the system and a
blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 80 kt for
this advisory.
 
The hurricane has made the anticipated turn toward the north, with
an estimated initial motion of 355/8 kt. This general heading should
continue for the next day or so. Thereafter, a large mid-level ridge
over the central Pacific is forecast to build to the northeast of
the system, which should cause Lala to turn back toward the
northwest. The track model guidance is in fairly good agreement
throughout the forecast period, with the primary spread consisting
of only minor along-track differences in forward speed. The updated
NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and lies
near the various multi-model consensus aids, including the GDMI.
 
Lala will remain a strong hurricane as it moves through the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, passing near or over
some of the atolls tonight into tomorrow and lingering within the
monument area for the next couple of days. Intensity guidance
indicates that some fluctuations in strength are possible during the
next day or so. The cyclone is currently situated in an environment
with enhanced upper-level divergence, which is helping to offset the
negative impacts of moderate vertical wind shear and dry air. Thus,
the official intensity forecast shows little change in strength in
the short term. By this weekend, a gradual weakening trend should
commence, in agreement with the latest HCCA consensus aid, as the
favorable divergence aloft wanes and the shear and dry air begin to
take a greater toll on the system. In about 3 days, Lala is forecast
to move over increasingly cooler sea surface temperatures. The
combination of cooler waters, persistent shear, and a dry mid-level
environment should induce a steadier rate of weakening. Although the
official forecast does not explicitly depict Lala becoming a
post-tropical cyclone at the end of the forecast period, some global
models suggest the system could struggle to maintain organized deep
convection by Day 5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 25.6N 172.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 27.0N 171.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 28.9N 171.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 30.3N 172.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 31.3N 173.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  23/1200Z 32.0N 174.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 32.7N 175.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 34.0N 177.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 35.5N 178.7W   45 KT  50 MPH