Tropical Cyclone Discussion
450 WTPA43 PHFO 202039 TCDCP3 Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 2 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 20 2026 The convection around Tropical Depression Two-C has continued to show some improvements since the last advisory, and the low-level circulation is a little better defined, as evident in satellite data. The objective Dvorak estimates range between 22-33 kt and the subjective estimates from JTWC and HFO are 1.5/25 kt and 2.0/30 kt, respectively. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Both NOAA and Air Force aircraft reconnaissance will investigate the cyclone tomorrow. The system appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt, and that motion is expected to persist for the next 48 hours or so until the ridge north of it strengthens. This steering flow is expected to force the system to turn more toward the west in a few days. The current NHC track lies on the northern side of the guidance envelope, but there is some uncertainty in the details in regards to the strength of the ridge and a nearby trough. It is important to note that the NHC track error at 72 h is about 75 n mi, and interests in the Hawaiian Islands, especially the Big Island, should monitor the progress of this system. The latest NHC track is slightly south of the previous one, but there is not much else in the way of change. The cyclone is expected to be in a mostly favorable environment for the next couple of days, which should allow for gradual strengthening to a high-end tropical storm or a category one hurricane as the system moves toward the Hawaiian Islands. Beyond that time, wind shear will likely start to increase and dry air will also begin to to intrude into the cyclone. The current NHC intensity forecast calls for a peak wind speed of 55 kt this weekend, with gradual weakening occuring after that. This forecast lies is a little lower than the previous one but remains near the high end of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. The tropical depression is expected to strengthen while it moves west-northwestward toward the Hawaiian Islands late this week and this weekend. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two-C is expected to begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Watches may be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands tonight or Friday and residents there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 12.5N 143.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 12.9N 145.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 13.5N 146.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 14.4N 148.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 15.2N 150.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 15.9N 152.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 16.4N 154.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 17.2N 159.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 18.3N 163.6W 40 KT 45 MPH