Tropical Cyclone Discussion

302
WTPA42 PHFO 191449
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Wed Aug 19 2026

Lala continues to be a strong hurricane with a well-defined, 
pronounced eye and cold cloud tops centralized around a ring of deep 
convection. Although in the last several hours, cloud tops have 
warmed some. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from 
HFO and JTWC for Lala were T6.0/115 kt and T5.5/102 kt, 
respectively. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range 
between 96-114 kt. Using a blend of these estimates and the latest 
satellite trends, the initial intensity is set to 110 kt for this 
advisory.  
 
Lala has been maintaining a northwestward motion at 310/8 kt, but is 
forecast to begin a gradual turn to the north by tomorrow as a ridge 
originally anchored north of the hurricane begins to weaken by an 
approaching mid- to upper-level trough from the northern Pacific. 
The latest guidance from HCCA and Google DeepMind has a general 
consensus that Lala will persist tracking northward through the next 
couple of days and then return to a northwestward heading. Guidance 
spread becomes more divergent by Day 3, particularly in the forward 
speed. The latest NHC forecast track is a blend of the previous one 
and the GDMI and HCCA corrected consensus aids.
 
The latest model and satellite trends suggest that Lala has reached 
its peak intensity and will gradually weaken as it continues to 
track north and west away from the main Hawaiian Islands. However, 
the system will remain a strong and powerful hurricane as it tracks 
towards and past the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. 
Beyond 60 h, moderate shear will steadily increase and mid-level RH 
values begin to decrease. At the same time, the favorable trough 
interaction and upper-level divergence begin to decrease as well.  
Given these factors, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows a 
steady weakening trend throughout the forecast period and lies near 
the simple and corrected intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 21.3N 170.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 22.2N 171.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 23.6N 171.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 25.0N 172.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 26.9N 171.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  22/0000Z 28.8N 171.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 30.4N 172.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 32.3N 174.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 34.2N 177.6W   55 KT  65 MPH