Tropical Cyclone Discussion
015 WTPA42 PHFO 190834 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 28 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Tue Aug 18 2026 Lala is an impressive hurricane tonight with a very clear eye and cold cloud tops in the surrounding ring of convection. Although recent images have shown some weakening of the thunderstorms in the southwestern quadrant, all of the best intensity estimates (HFO, JTWC, DMINT, DPRINT) were near 115 kt at 6z, so the initial wind speed is raised to that value. The hurricane is moving northwestward at about 8 kt, steered primarily by a mid-level ridge centered to the north. A gradual turn toward the north is expected by Thursday as a mid- to upper-level trough weakens the ridge. Late this week, Lala is likely to turn back toward the north-northwest or northwest as the trough cuts off, and Lala moves around its northeastern periphery. The biggest change to the forecast is a westward adjustment at long range, though not nearly as far west as the latest Google DeepMind solution. There remains considerable spread regarding the timing and location of the eventual turn back towards the north-northwest or northwest due to the complicated flow regime. Recent satellite imagery suggests Lala could be at the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle, though there any microwave passes are inconclusive. Regardless, most of the models suggest Lala is near peak intensity with warm waters somewhat balancing the moderate shear conditions and a dry mid-level environment. After 24 h, Lala is expected to move over gradually cooler waters while interacting with the aforementioned trough, which should keep the hurricane weakening. The long-range forecast is challenging because the trough interaction could allow for the system to keep more tropical features than typical at such a high latitude in the central Pacific, with very cold upper-level temperatures and lower shear countering sub 25C waters. At this point, a gradual lessening of the winds is shown through the end of the forecast, but is of low confidence due to the variety of possibilities with the upcoming trough interaction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 20.9N 169.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 21.8N 170.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 23.1N 171.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 24.5N 172.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 26.1N 171.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 28.1N 171.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 30.1N 171.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 32.2N 174.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 34.0N 176.5W 60 KT 70 MPH