Tropical Cyclone Discussion
684 WTPA42 PHFO 190253 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 27 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Tue Aug 18 2026 The satellite presentation of Lala has improved markedly over the past several hours, with very cold cloud tops now completely surrounding a clear, symmetric and very warm eye. The latest subjective intensity estimates from WFO HFO and JTWC are 5.0/90 kt and 5.5/102 kt, respectively. However, objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS span a considerably wider range of 94-119 kt. Given the rapidly increasing objective intensity estimates and the continued improvement in Lala's satellite presentation, the initial intensity has been set at 110 kt for this advisory. This makes Lala the first major hurricane of the year in the Central Pacific Basin. Lala is moving west-northwestward around 8 kt, steered primarily by a mid-level ridge centered to the north. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected on Wednesday as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the region from the northwest. By Thursday, the trough is expected to weaken the ridge, resulting in a more northward motion. Late this week, Lala is likely to turn back toward the north-northwest as the trough becomes a cut-off low and Lala moves around its northeastern periphery. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory through 96 h. Beyond that time, however, there remains considerable along- and cross-track spread regarding the timing and location of the eventual turn back toward the north-northwest. Despite moderate west-southwesterly wind shear, relatively dry mid-level air and unfavorable upper-level winds, Lala has been rapidly intensifying over fairly warm sea surface temperatures. Although recent satellite imagery suggests that the hurricane's strength may be leveling off for the time being, some additional strengthening is possible over the next 12 h or so. The forecast peak intensity has been increased to 115 kt, which is above all available intensity guidance. After 24 h, Lala is expected to move over gradually cooler waters while continuing to encounter moderate west-southwesterly wind shear associated with the trough. During this time, however, the hurricane should move into a more moist environment and experience periods of enhanced upper-level divergence which could temporarily offset some of the unfavorable conditions. The latest NHC forecast therefore calls for only slow weakening beyond 24 h, followed by more steady weakening after 72 h as Lala moves over progressively cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 20.7N 168.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 21.3N 169.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 22.5N 171.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 23.9N 171.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 25.4N 171.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 26.9N 171.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 28.7N 171.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 31.8N 172.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 34.0N 174.1W 65 KT 75 MPH