Tropical Cyclone Discussion
481 WTPA42 PHFO 182038 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 26 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 18 2026 Lala has continued to become better organized since the previous advisory, with the eyewall cloud tops continuing to cool and the eye becoming warmer and more distinct. The various satellite intensity estimates continue to have a large spread from 61 to 94 kt, but they have all increased over the past six hours. Based on the previous advisory and current trends, the initial intensity is increased to 90 kt. The initial motion remains westward or 275/8 kt. There is little change in the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. Lala should move westward to west-northwestward for the next 12-24 h as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to the north. From 24-72 h, the cyclone should make a northward turn as a mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest breaks down the ridge. From 72-120 h, a turn back toward the northwest is likely as the trough becomes a cut-off low with Lala moving around the northeast side. The guidance is in reasonably good agreement with this scenario, although there is still cross-track spread on when and where the various turns will occur. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and follows a cluster of models that includes the HFIP Corrected consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind Ensemble mean (GDMI). In the short term, it is unclear how much more Lala can strengthen since the hurricane is experiencing 15-20 kt of westerly shear and is embedded in a dry mid-level air mass. Based on the guidance trends, the intensity forecast shows 12 h more strengthening and a peak intensity of 100 kt, which is at the upper edge of the guidance. In the longer term, the large-scale models forecast the shear to persist for at least the next three days as the hurricane interacts with aforementioned upper-level trough. The shear gets strong enough so that the hurricane should weaken some for 24-72 h, although during this time Lala should reach a more moist environment and find periods of strong upper-level divergence caused by the trough. Overall, the intensity guidance shows a slow decay from 24-72 h, and the new forecast follows this. Sea surface temperatures decrease along the forecast track after 72 h, and this should cause continued gradual weakening even though the shear is forecast to decrease. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 20.4N 168.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 20.8N 169.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 21.9N 170.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 23.2N 171.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 24.5N 171.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 26.1N 171.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 28.0N 170.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 31.2N 171.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 33.6N 173.5W 65 KT 75 MPH