Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

430
AXNT20 KNHC 181525
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Aug 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along 26N, south of 19N,
moving westward at about 10 kt. No significant convection is
evident near this tropical wave.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 42W, south of 
18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 64W, south 
of 19N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 15N to 18N and between 59W and 67W. 
A southwest Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 83W, south
of 20N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 10N to 15N west of 80W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
Th monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 11N40W. The
ITCZ extends from 11N44W to 08N55W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is evident from 11N to 15N and east
of 37W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Weak high pressure across the Gulf waters support moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across much of the basin.
For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf 
waters through the week. A weak pressure pattern will support 
mostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A 
diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to locally 
strong winds north and west of the Yucatan peninsula early each 
evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at
night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate
seas are expected through the forecast period. 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean is
supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8
ft across much of the basin, especially south of 18N. Light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are found elsewhere. 
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area 
and the Colombian low will support will support fresh to strong 
trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean 
through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and 
moderate seas will prevail in the north-central and eastern 
Caribbean into the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds 
and slight to moderate seas are expected.  
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from a 1014 mb low center north of the area 
near 37N48W southwestward to 29N55W to 1015 mb low pressure near
28N64W, then northwestward to 31N72W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted along and ahead of the front.
Moderate to fresh SW-S winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted north 
of 28N and ahead of the front to 45W. The remainder of the 
tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that 
sustains moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas. However, 
fresh northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found in the far 
eastern Atlantic off NW Mauritania and southern Western Sahara.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will 
weaken into a trough by tonight. A weak pressure gradient will 
support mainly light to gentle winds, locally moderate, across 
much of the area N of 22N through the week and into the weekend. 
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds can be expected S of 22N.