Tropical Cyclone Discussion
039 WTPA42 PHFO 180856 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 24 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 17 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that Lala has continued to become better organized, with an eye emerging in infrared satellite imagery around 06Z. Since that time, the eye has opened and closed a couple times as Lala attempts to become better organized. A very recent GPMI microwave pass also indicates that the eye is becoming better organized. Lala appears to be strengthening, despite being embedded in an environment of 10-15 kt westerly vertical wind shear and a dry mid-level troposphere. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are a consensus 4.0/65 kt from PHFO and JTWC. Recent SATCON, DPRINT and DMINT intensity estimates have been ebbing and flowing in the 62-76 kt range. Given these estimates, the initial intensity has been raised to 70 kt, making Lala a hurricane again. The initial motion estimate is westward, or 275/9 kt. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected over the next 36 h as a narrow ridge north of Lala shifts eastward and an upper-level trough approaches the hurricane from the northwest. By Thursday, that trough will cause Lala to turn northward. This forecast brings Lala toward portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument on Thursday and Thursday night, and watches will likely be required for parts of that area on Tuesday morning. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one through 36 h, but then faster toward the north from 48-120 h. The NHC track forecast is near the Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI) and the Simple Consensus aid (TVCN). The confidence is the track forecast is high through 48 h, but there is significant spread in the guidance from 72-120 h in both the along-track and cross-track directions. Lala has been able to strengthen by 20 kt over the past 18-24 h despite a dry mid-level environment and 10-15 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. All of the models indicate continued strengthening over the next 24 h despite a slight increase in wind shear to the 15-20 kt range by 12-24 h. The NHC intensity forecast is between the middle and high end of the guidance during this period. The NHC forecast peak intensity was increased slightly to 85 kt during hour 24-48, similar to an average of the hurricane regional models. Thereafter, most models keep Lala a hurricane through at least day 4 or 5. Although SHIPS guidance shows increasing vertical wind shear in the 60-96 h period, the shear vector should be fairly similar to the direction of motion by that time, limiting the shear's negative influence. Furthermore, the position of the aforementioned upper-level trough relative to Lala could help enhance upper-level divergence and outflow over the hurricane. These factors lead to a complicated intensity forecast around the 60-96 h time frame. The NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope during that time. By day 5, Lala will likely be approaching the 26C sea-surface temperature isotherm as it gains latitude, leading to weakening by that point. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 20.4N 166.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 20.6N 167.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 21.1N 169.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 22.1N 170.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 23.3N 171.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 24.6N 172.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 26.0N 171.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 30.2N 170.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 33.3N 172.1W 70 KT 80 MPH