Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
585 AXNT20 KNHC 180434 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Aug 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0432 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along 19.5N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Isolated convection is depicted from 07N to 12N between 16W and 21W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 38W, extending from 02N to 18N, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. Another central tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles with its axis near 59.5W, south of 19N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 12N to 20N between 56W and 62W. A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 78W south of 20N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Numerous moderate convection is depicted south of 14N and west of 75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through 16N17W and continues southwestward to 11N21W to 10N43W, where it transitions to the ITCZ, then continues to 11.5N55W. Isolated moderate convection is depicted from 10N to 13N between 26W and 34W and between 44.5W and 53W. Additional convection is discussed in the Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure of 1018 mb, centered near 26N85W, dominates the Gulf waters, supporting mainly gentle winds and slight seas. Offshore the Florida Panhandle moderate SW to W winds have developed in associated with a trough N of the area. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are over the central and eastern Bay of Campeche due to a westward moving trough that is along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas 2 to 4 ft over the waters where these winds are present. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Numerous moderate convection is noted in the NW basin W of 83W, in association with the interaction of a tropical wave to the SE and a surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula. See the Tropical Waves section above for information on further convection caused by the tropical wave as well as additional thunderstorms entering the eastern basin in association with a second tropical wave. Fresh to locally strong trades and rough seas dominate the central basin, with moderate to fresh trades in the eastern and southwest basin, along with moderate seas. In the NW basin, away from convection where locally higher winds and seas are likely, gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean waters will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail in the north-central and eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a 1014 mb low center north of the area near 33N53W southwestward to 31N53.5W to 27N61W and northwestward to 31N74W. East of the front, to about 46W, and N of 27N, scattered moderate convection and fresh to strong SW winds prevail. To the W, south of the boundary to 24.5N, scattered moderate convection also is ongoing. The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1028 mb high pressure center located north of the Azores. Its related gradient is supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will stall and weaken into a trough by Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds in the vicinity of the front will diminish tonight. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds, locally moderate, across much of the area N of 22N through the week. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds can be expected S of 22N.