Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
529 AXNT20 KNHC 162234 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Aug 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is noted along 35W from 06N to 20N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave has diminished this evening. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W from 06N to 22N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 14N between 50W and 55W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W from Hispaniola to Colombia, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 68W and 77W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W, and extends southwestward to 13N25W to 12N35W. The ITCZ begins near 12N40W and continues to 13N45W to 12N50W. Another segment of the ITCZ is noted from 11N55W to 09N60W. No significant convection is evident aside from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A ridge extends across the northern Gulf anchored by a 1021 mb high pressure center just offshore Louisiana. Scattered moderate convection is present in the west-central Gulf in association with a surface trough that extends roughly 120 nm offshore from Tampico, Mexico, to Frontera, Mexico. A diurnal increase of NE winds to moderate to fresh speeds is occurring in the eastern Bay of Campeche, otherwise winds are light to gentle. Seas are mainly 1 to 3 ft, with localized 4 ft seas near the Yucatan Channel and in the Florida Straits. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to occasionally strong winds N of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Tropical Waves section above for details on Central Caribbean convection because caused by a tropical wave. In the NW basin, scattered moderate convection is noted between Cuba and Jamaica, and northward from the Gulf of Honduras to just offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. The pressure gradient between low pressure to the south and the Atlantic ridge centered east of the Bahamas is supporting strong E winds and 10-12 ft seas over the central Caribbean, and fresh NE to E winds and 7-9 ft seas across most of the rest of the basin. Moderate NE winds and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean north and west of the Cayman Islands. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean though Mon. A tropical wave in the central Caribbean is accompanied by active convection which will create locally higher winds and seas. The wave will continue westward across the western Caribbean early this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pre-frontal trough has moved S of 31N and extends this evening from 31N59W to 27N64W. Scattered moderate convection associated with this trough and the parent cold front are impacting waters N of 27N between 52W and 72W. Otherwise, the Bermuda-Azores high, anchored by a 1022 mb high center N of the Bahamas dominates. Ahead of the aforementioned trough, fresh SW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas extend E to 50W. Otherwise, moderate seas and moderate or weaker winds dominate the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a ridge along 28N and a tropical wave moving through the central Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds south of 22N through tonight. A cold front will move into the northern waters east of 70W late today. The front will move across the northern forecast waters on Mon then weaken into a trough by Tue. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front and E of 70W today and tonight.