Tropical Cyclone Discussion
214 WTPA42 PHFO 162055 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 18 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 16 2026 The satellite presentation of Lala is highlighted by a large, curved convective band that extends over the northern and eastern sides of the storm. A small area of central convection obscures the low-level center, and a large dry slot wraps around the southern and eastern portions of the circulation. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have continued to decrease this morning, and the initial intensity is set at 55 kt, in best agreement with recent D-MINT and D-PRINT estimates from UW-CIMSS. After moving northwestward for much of the morning, recent radar fixes indicate Lala has sped up and begun its westward turn. A subtropical ridge over the central Pacific should keep Lala moving westward during the next couple of days. The track forecast for days 3-5 remains challenging. There is slightly better agreement among the track guidance this cycle on the storm turning northwestward later in the period as an upper-level trough induces a weakness in the subtropical ridge. However, there is still a bifurcation of GFS and Google Deep Mind ensemble solutions, with some members continuing westward across the International Date Line. With the overall track envelope shifting eastward this cycle, the updated NHC track forecast lies to the right of the previous one at most forecast times. This adjustment is in the direction of the latest multi-model consensus aids and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean. Given Lala's disorganized structure, its proximity to the Hawaiian Islands, and the drier environment surrounding the storm, little change in strength is expected during the next 24 h. Once Lala pulls away from Hawaii, warm SSTs along the forecast track could allow for some reintensification. However, moderate west-northwesterly shear and continued dry air in the environment could temper the amount of strengthening that occurs. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward in the 36-72 h period and shows Lala becoming a hurricane again by midweek. The forecast still lies below the intensity consensus (IVCN), which is higher due to the stronger hurricane regional model solutions. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds, accompanied by gusts to near hurricane strength, will persist over Maui County, Oahu, and Kauai County today. The strongest winds will occur over areas of higher terrain. 2. Rain will continue to taper off across the Big Island and Maui this afternoon, however additional areas of flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Otherwise, heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding and mudslides from Lala will continue across the rest of the island chain through later tonight. 3. Large and dangerous waves are expected to persist across portions of the Hawaiian Islands today. Surf is building along east-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores as Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. 4. Use caution after Lala passes as deadly hazards remain, including flooded areas and downed power lines. If you use a generator, be sure it is placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 20.9N 160.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 21.1N 161.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 21.2N 163.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 21.1N 165.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 21.0N 167.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 21.3N 169.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 21.9N 171.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 23.5N 174.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 25.0N 176.0W 70 KT 80 MPH