Tropical Cyclone Discussion
187 WTPA42 PHFO 161455 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 17 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sun Aug 16 2026 Lala is showing ill effects from land interaction with the Hawaiian Islands and dry air intrusions this morning. The coverage of deep convection has diminished and become displaced to the north of the center. The southern half of the circulation is partially exposed in proxy-visible satellite images, with drier mid-level air apparent in water vapor imagery to the south of the storm. Radar data from Kohala (PHKM) indicate bands of heavy rainfall continue across Maui County and are beginning to reach Oahu. The initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt this morning, which is supported by a blend of the data-T and final-T Dvorak numbers from HFO and JTWC and some of the UW-CIMSS objective estimates between 55-60 kt. The long-term motion of the storm is still northwestward (305/12 kt). Lala is expected to turn westward later today and continue westward for the next couple of days along the southern extent of a subtropical ridge to its north. The track models are in good agreement on this portion of the forecast. The updated NHC track prediction lies slightly north of the previous one, mainly because the current position is north of the previous forecast track. The longer-range track forecast is highly uncertain, with a bifurcation in the track guidance related to whether a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge to induce a northward turn. The ECMWF and UKMET models show a westward motion through the period, while the GFS depicts a sharp northward turn at days 4-5. For now, the NHC forecast continues to split the difference and generally lies between the simple (TVCN) and corrected (HCCA) consensus aids. Given the current structure of Lala and the drier air surrounding the storm, some additional near-term weakening is forecast. However, the intensity guidance this cycle was more aggressive with restrengthening during the middle part of this week, particularly the hurricane regional models. The shear diagnosed from the SHIPS guidance does not appear prohibitive, and SSTs along the track are warm enough to support intensification if Lala can become better organized within a slightly better mid-level moisture environment. Therefore, the updated NHC intensity forecast has been increased from 48-120 h, though it still lies below the simple intensity consensus (IVCN). Key Messages: 1. Strong wind gusts are expected to continue across the Big Island of Hawaii this morning, particularly over areas of higher terrain. Across portions of the smaller islands, tropical-storm-force winds accompanied by gusts to near hurricane strength will persist through today. 2. Rain will continue to taper across the Big Island and Maui this morning, however additional areas of flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Otherwise, heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding from Lala will continue to spread westward across the island chain through today. 3. Large and dangerous waves are expected to persist across portions of the Hawaiian Islands today. Surf is building along east-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores as Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. 4. Use caution after Lala passes as deadly hazards remain, including flooded areas and downed power lines. If you use a generator, be sure it is placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 20.2N 158.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 20.7N 160.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 20.9N 162.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 20.8N 165.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 20.6N 167.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 20.7N 168.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 21.0N 170.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 22.4N 174.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 23.5N 176.0W 75 KT 85 MPH