Tropical Cyclone Discussion
901 WTPA42 PHFO 160854 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lala Discussion Number 16 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 Lala appears to have peaked in intensity earlier this afternoon while passing near South Point of the Big Island. Since that time, the hurricane has continued northwestward just offshore of the Leeward Coast of the Big Island, while its satellite presentation has gradually degraded. Despite the less organized appearance, subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from both HFO and JTWC remain at 4.0/65 kt, which align with the latest objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt. Lala continues to move northwestward just offshore of the Leeward Coast of the Big Island, with an initial motion of 310/13 kt. A gradual turn toward the west and an increase in forward speed are expected on Sunday as the influence of the Big Island terrain diminishes and Lala moves westward along the southern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge. This general motion should continue through early next week. By the middle of next week, a shortwave trough moving across the northern Pacific is forecast to weaken the ridge, causing Lala to slow and gradually turn toward the west-northwest and northwest. Forecast confidence in the track, however, begins to decrease by day 5 due to increasing cross-track spread among the guidance. The latest NHC forecast lies close to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and multi-model consensus (HCCA) aids throughout the forecast period. Lala appears to have peaked in intensity earlier while passing near South Point of the Big Island. The hurricane could maintain its intensity for a few more hours, but weakening is expected by early Sunday as Lala continues to pull away from the Big Island. Dry mid-level air along with moderate vertical wind shear should contribute to a deterioration of the convective structure and support additional weakening. Some re-strengthening could occur after 48 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the previous advisory. Key Messages: 1. Damaging winds are expected to continue on the Big Island of Hawaii into the overnight hours, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas of higher terrain. Residents are urged to stay in their shelter through tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds with gusts to near or up to hurricane strength will persist across portions of the smaller islands through Sunday. 2. Heavy rainfall, with life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, will continue tonight into early Sunday over the Big Island and Maui. This heavy rain and flood risk will continue to spread westward across the island chain through Sunday. 3. Large and dangerous waves are expected to persist across portions of the Hawaiian Islands through the weekend. Surf is building along east-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores as Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 19.6N 157.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 20.1N 159.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 20.5N 161.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 20.5N 164.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 20.4N 166.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 20.3N 168.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 20.4N 170.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 21.5N 173.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 23.1N 176.1W 70 KT 80 MPH