Tropical Cyclone Discussion

523
WTPZ43 KNHC 152042
TCDEP3
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hernan Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082026
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026
 
Hernan continues to remain a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with 
no active deep convection. A recent ASCAT pass showed that the winds 
are around 20 to 25 kts at most in the northern portion of the 
cyclone. As a result of that, the initial intensity has been lowered 
to 25 kt. 
 
Given that the cyclone is moving into an area of higher shear and 
drier air, gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of 
days. The current forecast calls for Hernan to become a trough in 
about 60 h in agreement with the global models.
 
The initial motion is 255/10 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north should steer Hernan and its remnants westward for the next
few days. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little faster
than, the previous track.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 15.8N 135.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  16/0600Z 15.9N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/1800Z 16.1N 139.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0600Z 16.4N 141.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1800Z 16.5N 143.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED