Tropical Cyclone Discussion

720
WTPZ43 KNHC 150837
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Hernan Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082026
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026

Hernan is currently a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with no 
active convection. A recent ASCAT overpass showed winds of 25-27 kt 
in the northwestern quadrant, and based on this and the possibility 
of undersampling the initial intensity is held at a possibly 
generous 30 kt. Unless convection makes a significant re-appearance, 
the cyclone is expected to degenerate to a remnant low within the 
next 12 h. The new forecast calls for the remnant low to decay to a 
trough by 72 h in agreement with the global models.

The initial motion is 275/11 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the 
north should steer Hernan and its remnants westward for the next 
few days. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little faster 
than, the previous track.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 16.4N 133.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/0600Z 16.6N 137.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1800Z 16.7N 139.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0600Z 16.8N 141.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/1800Z 16.8N 143.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED