Tropical Cyclone Discussion
648 WTPA42 PHFO 150833 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 12 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026 Lala has shown little change in convective structure over the past several hours, although there have been some decent bursts of deep convection over the circulation with cloud tops as cold as -75 C. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 58 kt in the northeastern quadrant and a minimum pressure of 991 mb. Given the broad structure of the cyclone and the overall satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 285/11 kt. A mid-level high pressure system anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands should continue to steer Lala generally west-northwestward during the next several days. Some slowing of the forward motion is possible as the cyclone approaches the Big Island and begins to interact with the island's terrain on Saturday. Short-term deviations in the track are also possible during this time. After passing near or over the southern portion of the Big Island, Lala could make a subtle turn toward the northwest in the lee of the island before resuming a west-northwestward motion south of the smaller islands through the remainder of the weekend. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the multi-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 h while environmental conditions remain generally favorable. Although mid-level dry air continues to be a limiting factor, the inner circulation could become somewhat more compact and organized as Lala approaches the southern portion of the Big Island. The NHC forecast therefore continues to show Lala reaching hurricane strength near the time it reaches the Big Island on Saturday. Interaction with the island's terrain should then disrupt the low-level circulation and result in weakening, with modest vertical wind shear providing an additional negative influence later in the weekend as Lala passes south of the smaller islands. Some re-strengthening is forecast early next week as the cyclone remains over warm sea surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected on the Big Island of Hawaii Saturday, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas of higher terrain. Preparations should be rushed to completion this evening before tropical-storm-force winds begin. Tropical-storm-force winds are also expected across portions of the smaller islands this weekend. 2. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Big Island and spread westward across the remainder of the island chain this weekend. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Large and dangerous waves are expected across portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. Surf is already building along east-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores as Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 17.8N 153.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 18.2N 154.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 19.3N 156.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 20.2N 159.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 20.7N 162.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 20.8N 164.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 20.9N 166.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 21.4N 170.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 23.0N 172.5W 70 KT 80 MPH