Tropical Cyclone Discussion

679
WTPZ43 KNHC 150235
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Hernan Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082026
500 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026

The center of Tropical Depression Hernan has reformed since the 
previous advisory, with the system now initialized about 30 mi 
north of the previous track. The center reformation is evident on 
geostationary visible satellite imagery and supported by a recent 
Oceansat-3 scatterometer pass. This also positions Hernan closer 
to its active convection, which is limited to a small area in the 
northeast quadrant. Based on the subjective and objective satellite 
classifications, and the aforementioned scatterometer pass which 
sampled the northwestern quadrant, the initial intensity remains at 
30 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is an uncertain 275/12 kt, and based primarily 
on visible satellite imagery over the past 4 to 6 h. This generally 
westward motion is expected to continue through the forecast period 
as the cyclone is steered by a deep-layer ridge to the north. Due to 
the center reformation, the new track forecast lies about 30 mi 
north of the previous forecast, and closely follows the HCCA and 
TVCN consensus aids. Moderate vertical wind shear and dry air are 
expected to continue to affect Hernan and lead to the system 
degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone by 24 h. The remnant low 
is forecast to continue westward for a few more days thereafter, 
before dissipating by 72 h. This is in agreement with the
deterministic global model guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 16.2N 132.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 16.4N 136.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1200Z 16.5N 138.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0000Z 16.6N 140.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/1200Z 16.7N 142.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED