Tropical Cyclone Discussion
201 WTPA42 PHFO 142035 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 10 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 14 2026 Lala is gradually becoming better organized. Satellite images show that the circulation appears less elongated and deep convection has increased some near the center. Despite the improved appearance, the latest satellite intensity estimates suggest that Lala has not strengthened yet. A very recent ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds around 40 kt north of the center, which is near most of the objective and subjective satellite estimates. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 50 kt. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Lala later today, and the data they collect will be helpful to assess the storm's structure and intensity. Lala is moving a little faster to the west-northwest at 12 kt, and this general motion is expected to persist during the next few days as a mid-level high pressure system remains anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands. When Lala is near the Big Island, short-term deviations in the track are also likely due to local terrain interactions, as depicted in many of the models. In fact, the model trends and latest guidance now support a landfall on the Big Island on Saturday. After Lala passes the Big Island, a continued west-northwestward track south of the remainder of the islands is expected Saturday night and Sunday. The NHC track forecast is mostly unchanged from the previous one, and is based on a blend of the latest Google DeepMind, HCCA, and TVCA aids, which have been performing quite well for this storm. Steady strengthening is expected during the next day or so since the storm appears to be consolidating while environmental conditions remain generally favorable. Lala is expected to become a category 1 hurricane when it reaches the Big Island. Once it interacts with land, Lala is forecast to weaken back to a tropical storm and an increase in shear, associated with an upper-level low, could also contribute to weakening later in the weekend. Re-strengthening is forecast early next week after Lala pulls away from the main Hawaiian Islands. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected on the Big Island of Hawaii Saturday, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas of higher terrain. Preparations should be rushed to completion today before tropical-storm-force winds begin. 2. Heavy rainfall will reach the Big Island later today, and spread westward across the remainder of the island chain this weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are expected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along exposed windward and southern shores. This heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 17.2N 150.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 17.8N 152.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 18.4N 154.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 19.4N 156.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 20.2N 159.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 20.6N 162.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 20.9N 164.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 21.5N 168.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 22.6N 171.8W 70 KT 80 MPH