Tropical Cyclone Discussion
443 WTPA42 PHFO 141444 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 9 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Fri Aug 14 2026 Lala has remained relatively steady state overnight. The storm continues to be asymmetric, with most of the deep convection and tropical-storm-force winds on its north side. Earlier data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure has been generally unchanged around 997 mb and the maximum winds still near 50 kt. The aircraft data and an OSCAT pass from around 09Z indicate that the wind field has contracted, which could be a sign that circulation is becoming more compact and might lead to strengthening soon. Lala is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt, and this general motion is expected to persist during the next few days as a mid-level high pressure system remains anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands. This motion should take the core of Lala very near or over the Big Island on Saturday. When Lala is near the Big Island, short-term deviations in the track are also likely due to local terrain interactions, as depicted in many of the models. After Lala passes the Big Island, a continued west-northwestward track south of the remainder of the islands is expected Saturday night and Sunday. The NHC track forecast is mostly unchanged from the previous one, and is based on a blend of the latest Google DeepMind, HCCA, and TVCA aids, which have been performing quite well for this storm. Steady strengthening is expected during the next day or so since the storm appears to be consolidating while environmental conditions remain generally favorable. Lala is still forecast to become a category 1 hurricane when it reaches the Big Island. Land interaction and an increase in wind shear should result in Lala weakening back to a tropical storm as it moves south of the remainder of the island chain later in the weekend. Re-strengthening is forecast early next week as vertical wind shear relaxes and Lala remains over warm sea surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Lala is forecast to strengthen and become a hurricane as it approaches the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Big Island and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Maui County. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Oahu and Kauai Counties. Winds are expected to be the strongest in areas of higher terrain. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lala will begin to impact the Big Island today, spreading westward across the remainder of the island chain during the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are expected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along exposed windward and southern shores. This prolonged period of heavy surf may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.7N 149.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 17.2N 151.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.0N 153.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 18.7N 155.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 19.6N 158.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 20.2N 160.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 20.7N 163.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 21.2N 166.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 22.3N 170.9W 70 KT 80 MPH